灾害事故调查评估理论体系研究OA
Research on the Theoretical System of Disaster and Accident Investigation and Assessment
灾害事故调查评估的科学性与有效性,高度依赖于坚实的理论指导.该文通过对社区生活、企业生产、工程建设、工程运营、野外营地和出行休闲6种灾害事故场景分析,阐述了调查评估面对的问题、任务和难点焦点,构建了由自然灾害成因理论、事故灾难致因理论、因果关联理论及系统防范理论构成的理论体系.其中,自然灾害成因理论包括天命使然论、能量释放传递论、能量转化放大论、随机遭遇论和预防应对缺位论;事故灾难致因理论包括事故频发倾向论、因果连锁论、能量释放论、轨迹交叉论、系统致因理论和动态变化理论;因果关联理论包括由因析果、由果推因和因果互馈的正反演思维理论;系统防范理论包括科学认识论、技术方法论和预防对策论,科学认识论解决成因与危害问题,技术方法论寻求整体论与分割论相结合,对策论包括法规论、工程论与文化论.回答了灾害事故"是什么、为什么、怎么办"三大核心问题,为提升调查评估工作的科学化、体系化提供了全新的理论支撑与实践路径.
Based on the analysis of disaster accidents in six scenarios including community life,enterprise production,engineering construction,engineering operation,outdoor campsites and travel and leisure,the prob-lems,tasks and key challenges faced by the investigation and assessment are analyzed.The investigation and evaluation theories mainly include the theory of causes of natural disasters,the theory of causes of accident disas-ters,the theory of causal relationships,and the theory of system prevention.The theories explaining the causes of natural disasters include the theory of divine predestination,the theory of energy release and transmission,the the-ory of energy transformation and amplification,the theory of random encounter,and the theory of inadequate pre-vention and response.The theories of accident causation include the accident recurrence tendency theory,the causal chain theory,the energy release theory,the trajectory intersection theory,the system causation theory and the dynamic change theory.The theory of causal correlation encompasses the forward and reverse thinking theo-ries of analyzing causes from effects,inferring causes from effects,and the mutual feedback of cause and effect.The system prevention theory encompasses scientific epistemology,technical methodology,and prevention coun-termeasures theory.Scientific epistemology addresses the issues of causes and hazards,while technical methodol-ogy seeks to combine the holistic and fragmented perspectives.The countermeasures theory includes regulatory theory,engineering theory,and cultural theory.
刘传正;苏国锋;米文忠;王建新
应急管理部国家自然灾害防治研究院,北京 100085清华大学 安全科学学院 灾害事故调查评估应急管理部重点实验室,北京 100084清华大学 安全科学学院 灾害事故调查评估应急管理部重点实验室,北京 100084应急管理部国家自然灾害防治研究院,北京 100085
资源环境
自然灾害事故灾难因果关联认识论方法论对策论
natural disastersaccidental disasterscausal relationshipEpistemologyMethodologyCounter-measure Theory
《灾害学》 2026 (1)
2-13,12
国家重点研发计划项目"灾害事故精准调查与智能研判平台关键技术"(2024YFC3016800)应急管理部国家自然灾害防治研究院基本科研业务专项(ZDJ2021-09)
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