经济政策风险对水产饲料供应链稳定性的影响研究OA

Aquaculture is an important part of China's fishery economy,and soybean is the main feed material,its supply security and price stability have an important impact on fishery production.In the context of increasing attention to food and fishery security,it is of great significance to study economic policy uncertainty on soybean price volatility and its transmission effect in the aquatic feed supply chain.Based on China's soybean futures price,international soybean futures price and China's economic policy uncertainty index from January 2005 to December 2020,this paper analyzed the dynamic impact of economic policy uncertainty on aquatic feed raw material price and its potential impact on fishery economy by constructing TVP-VAR model.The results showed that during the period of economic policy uncertainty,the fluctuation of soybean price increased significantly,which led to the increase of aquatic feed cost.In a period of declining economic policy uncertainty,soybean prices tend to stabilize and aquaculture cost pressures decrease.In addition,during the Sino-US trade war,China's relevant policies have had a significant impact on soybean futures prices and aquatic product supply chains.In order to ensure the stability of the fishery economy,it is necessary to strengthen the monitoring and regulation of economic policy uncertainties,optimize the structure of the aquatic feed supply chain,and enhance the global competitiveness and risk response ability of China's fishery industry.