基于大田试验的冬小麦气象服务效益定量评估初探OA
A Preliminary Study on Quantitative Evaluation of Meteorological Service Benefits for Winter Wheat Based on Field Experiments
2023 年 10 月在河南省新乡市高标准农田设置完全响应区、部分响应区和不响应区,并在部分响应区随机布设仅不开展赤霉病防控和仅不开展干热风防控两种处理,共 5个试验处理.试验期间按照 2 期河南省农业气象灾害预警信息(干热风、赤霉病)和 2 期河南省农业气象服务周报建议,于试验点开展 2 次灌溉(返青期、拔节期)、赤霉病防控(抽穗期)和干热风防控(灌浆期)处理,并结合其他调查及观测结果,定量分析农业气象服务信息不同响应处理对冬小麦主要生长要素及经济效益的影响.结果表明:(1)及时响应(1~14d)冬小麦赤霉病和干热风灾害预警信息,并进行相关防控,可有效减轻危害,部分响应区赤霉病防控地块冬小麦赤霉病病穗率降低 1.50 个百分点,部分响应区干热风防控地块千粒重提高 1.42g,灌浆速率提高0.12g·d-1.(2)冬小麦抽穗期和灌浆期不同响应处理下,主要生长要素差异显著.完全响应处理下抽穗期平均穗、茎和叶干重分别为 2.73g、6.57g 和 2.74g,整体高于部分响应处理;灌浆期平均穗、叶干重和穗粒数分别为 21.34g、2.15g和 41.93 个,整体呈完全响应处理>部分响应处理>不响应处理的趋势.(3)对农业气象服务信息及时响应,可显著增产增收.完全响应处理较部分响应处理每公顷冬小麦可增产 666.67kg,增收1690.00 元,较不响应处理每公顷增产 2310.81kg,增收 4435.95 元;部分响应处理较不响应处理每公顷可增产 1644.14kg,增收 2745.95.元.通过对农业气象服务信息不同响应处理产生的效益进行定量评估,对提升冬小麦单产具有重要科技支撑和生产指导意义.
High-standard farmland in Xinxiang,Henan province,was divided into a fully responsive area,a partially responsive area and a non-responsive area in October 2023.Within the partially responsive area,two treatments were randomly implemented:one without controlling fusarium head blight(FHB)and the other without controlling dry hot wind(DHW).This resulted in a total of five experimental treatments.During the trial,two issues of Henan agricultural meteorological disaster warning information(for DHW and FHB)and two important issues of Henan agricultural meteorological service weekly reports were released.The experimental site followed the trial design requirements for two irrigation treatments(at the green-up and jointing stages),FHB control(at the heading stage),and DHW control(at the grain filling stage).Combined with additional surveys and observations,the impact of different response treatments to agricultural meteorological service information on major growth factors and economic benefits of winter wheat was quantitatively analyzed.The results indicated that:(1)promptly responding(within 1-14d)to early warning information on wheat scab and dry-hot wind disasters in winter wheat,and implementing relevant control measures,could effectively mitigate the damage.In some response areas,the percentage of diseased ears of winter wheat fell by 1.50 percentage points in fields where wheat scab control measures were in place.In some response areas,the thousand-grain weight of winter wheat in fields where dry-hot wind control measures were implemented increased by 1.42g,and the grain filling rate increased by 0.12g·d-1.(2)Significant differences were observed in the main growth conditions of winter wheat under different response treatments during the heading and grain filling stages.At the head stage,the dry weight of the ears,stems and leaves in the fully responsive treatment was 2.73g,6.57g and 2.74g respectively,which was overall better than in the non-responsive treatment.At the grain filling stage,the dry weights of ears and leaves,and the number of grains per ear were 21.34g,2.15g,and 41.93 grains,respectively,showing a trend of fully responsive treatment>partially responsive treatment>non-responsive treatment.(3)Timely response to agricultural meteorological service information could significantly increase production and income.Compared with the partially responsive treatment,the fully responsive treatment increased the yield of winter wheat by 666.67kg per hectare and the revenue by 1690.00yuan.Compared to the non-responsive treatment,it increased the yield by 2310.81kg per hectare and increased the revenue by 4435.95yuan.The partially responsive treatment resulted in an increase in yield of 1644.14kg per hectare compared to the non-responsive treatment and an increase in revenue of 2745.95yuan.This study provides important scientific and technological support and production guidance for improving winter wheat yields by quantitatively evaluating the benefits generated by different responses to agricultural meteorological service information.
郭康军;姬兴杰;董宛麟
中国气象局·河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室/河南省气象科学研究所,郑州 450003||安阳国家气候观象台,安阳 455099中国气象局·河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室/河南省气象科学研究所,郑州 450003||安阳国家气候观象台,安阳 455099中国气象局·河南省农业气象保障与应用技术重点开放实验室/河南省气象科学研究所,郑州 450003||中国气象局气象干部培训学院,北京 100081
河南冬小麦气象服务效益高标准农田
HenanWinter wheatBenefits of meteorological servicesHigh-standard farmland
《中国农业气象》 2026 (1)
7-19,13
中国气象局高标准农田智慧气象保障技术青年创新团队项目(CMA2024QN03)2024年度中国气象局气象软科学研究课题(2024MSXM16)中国气象局农业气象保障与应用技术重点实验室开放基金资助项目(AMF202506AMF202401)国家重点研发计划专项课题(2022YFD2300202)
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