贝伦会议成果要点及国际气候谈判未来焦点问题OA
Key Outcomes of the Belém Conference and Future Focus Areas in International Climate Negotiations
《联合国气候变化框架公约》第三十届缔约方大会即贝伦会议标志着国际气候治理从"NDC目标设定"迈向"多目标复合实施"的关键转型.贝伦会议在维护多边主义方面取得重要成果,包括授权建立"公正转型机制",设立到2035 年将适应资金增加两倍的目标,通过包含 59 项指标的全球适应目标框架,将发展中国家高度关切的单边贸易措施正式纳入《巴黎协定》气候谈判进程等,体现了对更综合、更公平发展诉求的回应.然而,这些成果只反映了当前共识,各方在多个问题上尚存分歧,这些分歧可能构成未来谈判焦点.其一,共同但有区别的责任原则的解释权博弈仍是贯穿减缓、资金等议题的核心矛盾;其二,化石燃料退出的机制性安排、新集体量化资金目标的清晰路线图等关键问题存在显著分歧;其三,公正转型机制设计、单边措施治理推进方式、关键矿产生产和分配公平等新兴议题日益政治化,可能成为新的博弈焦点.展望未来,谈判焦点不再局限于减排目标,将延伸至资金落实、技术分享、产业转型及贸易规则协调等深层次系统性议题.中国应继续坚持共同但有区别的责任原则和发展中国家定位,以"双碳"行动为支撑,积极贡献于公正转型、适应行动等技术性议程的机制设计,通过南南合作与多边对话,推动构建更加包容、务实、均衡的全球气候治理体系,在维护自身发展空间的同时,提升制度性话语权与气候治理影响力.
The 30th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change(UNFCCC),known as the Belém Conference,marks a pivotal transition in international climate governance—shifting from"NDC target setting"to"multi-objective implementation."The Belém Conference achieved significant outcomes in upholding multilateralism,including authorizing the establishment of a"Just Transition Mechanism,"setting a target to triple adaptation funding by 2035,adopting a global adaptation goal framework with 59 indicators,and formally incorporating unilateral trade measures—a key concern for developing countries—into the climate negotiation process.These outcomes reflect a response to calls for more comprehensive and equitable development.However,these outcomes only reflect the current consensus,and parties remain divided on multiple issues that may become focal points for future negotiations.First,the interpretation of the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities remains the core contradiction running through mitigation,finance,and other topics.Second,significant disagreements persist on key issues such as institutional arrangements for phasing out fossil fuels and a clear roadmap for new collective quantified financial targets.Third,emerging topics like the design of the Just Transition Mechanism,approaches to advancing unilateral measures,and equitable value chains for critical minerals are becoming increasingly politicized and may emerge as new focal points of contention.Looking ahead,negotiation priorities will extend beyond emission reduction targets to encompass deeper systemic issues such as financial implementation,technology sharing,industrial transformation,and trade rule coordination.China should continue to uphold the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and the position of developing countries.Supported by its dual carbon goals,China should actively contribute to the design of mechanisms for technical agendas such as just transition and adaptation actions.Through South-South cooperation and multilateral dialogue,China should promote the construction of a more inclusive,pragmatic,and balanced global climate governance system.While safeguarding its own development space,China should enhance its institutional voice and influence in climate governance.
王谋;刘莉雯
中国社会科学院可持续发展研究中心||中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院中国社会科学院大学应用经济学院
国际气候治理公正转型贝伦会议气候谈判"双碳"目标
《阅江学刊》 2026 (1)
48-57,10
国家社会科学基金重大项目"碳中和新形势下我国参与国际气候治理总体战略和阶段性策略研究"(22ZDA111).
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