基于博弈论组合赋权模糊物元模型的渭河流域陕西段可持续性评价研究OA
Sustainability Evaluation of the Shaanxi Section of Weihe River Basin Based on Game Theory and a Weighted Fuzzy Matter Element Model
分析渭河流域陕西段2012-2021年水安全、水资源、生态健康、水质环境、水经济、水文化相关数据,以评价该流域的可持续性,为流域水资源管理与高质量发展提供科学依据.综合考虑流域实际情况与发展需求,选取涵盖上述6个维度的22项评价指标;改进G1法与熵权法,经博弈论组合赋权确定指标权重,构建模糊物元模型;运用改进的TOPSIS-RSR-Fuzzy方法进行评价与敏感性分析.结果显示,流域径流调节能力、流域生物完整性指数等指标权重居前,其中流域径流调节能力权重达0.156,流域生物完整性指数权重为0.108.2012-2014年流域处于初步可持续等级,2015-2021年可持续性评价得分稳步上升,2021年得分最高为0.699.敏感性分析表明,不同年份指标敏感性有变化,堤防达标率、富营养化率、城区防洪达标率等波动大.基于研究成果,提出应保障流域水安全、合理管理水资源、推动经济文化环境协调发展、提升居民幸福感等建议.
The Shaanxi section of the Weihe River basin was selected for research,and we evaluated its sustainability,explored evolutionary patterns and identified key factors influencing sustainability.Our aim was to provide a scientific basis for water resource management and high-quality development.Consider-ing the existing situation and development needs in the basin,we selected evaluation indicators related to water security and resources,ecological health,water quality,water economy,and water culture to develop an evaluation system based on relevant data from 2012 to 2021.First,the G1 method and entropy weight method were used for determining the subjective and objective weights of indicators,and the comprehen-sive index weight of each indicator was then determined using a combinatorial weighting method based on game theory.Next,a fuzzy matter-element model was constructed,and finally the improved TOPSIS-RSR-Fuzzy method was used to evaluate watershed sustainability and analyze model sensitivity.Indicator weights for watershed runoff regulation and watershed biological integrity ranked high:the weight for watershed runoff regulation was 0.156 and that for watershed biological integrity was 0.108.The evalua-tion results of the model were consistent with the existing situation.From 2012 to 2014,the river basin was at the preliminary sustainable level,and the evaluation score for sustainability increased steadily from 2015 to 2021,with the highest score of 0.699 in 2021.Analysis showed that the sensitivity of indicators varied by year,and the dike compliance rate,eutrophication rate,and urban flood control compliance rate fluctuated dramatically.Based on our findings,we make the following suggestions:ensure water secu-rity in the basin,rationally manage water resources,promote coordinated development of the economy,culture,and environment,and improve the happiness of residents.These suggestions provide a basis for rational water resource management and sustainable development in the Shaanxi section of Weihe River basin.
罗娟;陈戈;程书强
陕西交通职业技术学院,陕西西安 710001||陕西科技大学,陕西西安 710001陕西交通职业技术学院,陕西西安 710001陕西科技大学,陕西西安 710001
资源环境
流域可持续性评价敏感性分析博弈论赋权法模糊物元模型渭河流域陕西段
assessment of watershed sustainabilitysensitivity analysisgame theory weighting methodfuzzy matter-element modelShaan section of Weihe River basin
《水生态学杂志》 2026 (2)
47-57,11
2022年陕西省教育厅科研计划(22JK0028)陕西省第五批"青年杰出人才支持计划"(陕教工函[2022]169号).
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