基于Apriori算法的民航不正常事件诱因关联性分析OA
为探究高频不正常事件致因及其彼此之间的关联性.该文结合shell模型思想,在通过对 2024 年ASIS系统中的不正常事件进行整理的同时,选取一些常见致因,确定一个包含 2 个层次、4个维度、88 个指标的多维双层致因体系.再选取APRIORI算法对2024 年 1-10 月的数据进行挖掘,并利用卡方检验对APRIORI算法获得的结果进行统计学检验,证明结果的科学性.最后利用2024 年 11-12 月数据去检验算法模型的可靠性.成功得出单致因不正常事件中GPS干扰,中止进近、复飞,鸟击,支持度为显著频繁项,支持度分别为 0.207、0.146、0.138;在多致因不正常事件中,(中止进近、复飞,鸟击)和(偏离指令高度,颠簸),它们是导致不正常事件出现的典型致因组合.
In order to explore the causes of high-frequency abnormal events and their correlation with each other.This paper combines the idea of shell model,while sorting out abnormal events in the ASIS system in 2024,selects some common causes,and determines a multi-dimensional and two-level cause system that includes 2 levels,4 dimensions,and 88 indicators.Then the APRIORI algorithm was selected to mine the data from January to October 2024,and the chi-square test was used to conduct statistical testing on the results obtained by the APRIORI algorithm to prove the scientific nature of the results.Finally,the data from November to December 2024 is used to test the reliability of the algorithm model.It was concluded that using GPS interferencein single-cause abnormal events,like abort approach,go-around,and bird strike,the support scores were significantly frequent items,with support scores of 0.207,0.146,and 0.138 respectively;in multi-cause abnormal events(abort approach,go-around,bird strike)and(deviation from command altitude,turbulence)are typical causal combinations that lead to the abnormal event.
龙俊吉;杜亚倩
民航西南空管局,成都 610000中国民用航空飞行学院,成都 618399
航空航天
民航安全不正常事件致因体系APRIORI算法卡方检验
civil aviation safetyabnormal eventcause systemAPRIORI algorithmchi-square test
《科技创新与应用》 2026 (1)
12-16,5
中国民用航空飞行学院项目(J2023-048)
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