印度对华战略误判的情报根源OA

[Purpose]India's strategic misjudgments regarding China have long been characterized by systematic miscalculations,but tradi-tional explanations fail to account for the persistent and recurring nature of these misperceptions,despite abundant intelligence resources.This study aims to explore the root causes of systematic cognitive biases in the Indian intelligence community's processing of information related to China.[Method]Drawing on Robert Jervis's theory of misperception,we construct a comprehensive analytical framework en-compassing four levels:the international system,bureaucratic organizations,decision-makers,and the technological environment.We al-so incorporate local variables such as"colonial legacy","diverse public opinion structures"and"algorithmic bias".By integrating the e-volution of India's intelligence system since the 1962 war and analyzing several typical incidents,we empirically explore the psychological,institutional,and technological pathways underlying these misperceptions.[Result/Conclusion]This study confirms that India's strategic misperception regarding China stems from systematic cognitive distortions in its intelligence assessments,demonstrating significant path de-pendence.The trauma of the 1962 Border war created a"historical analogy"that was institutionalized by the bureaucracy and solidified in-to a"threat mentality".The complexity of post-Cold War bilateral relations,coupled with domestic nationalist politics and the"algorith-mic bias"of the digital age,exacerbated and solidified this cognitive cycle.This study proposes the"Indian misperception Model",which emphasizes the interaction between psychological mechanisms and institutional,technological and political cultural variables,and provides a new analytical tool for understanding the strategic cognitive biases of non-Western powers.