竞争态视角下我国海洋经济高质量发展的格局演化与趋势预测OA北大核心

Based on panel data from 11 coastal provinces from 2010 to 2021,this study explores the temporal changes and spatial patterns of high-quality development of China's marine economy using competitive state mod-els and kernel density analysis.In addition,this study constructs traditional and spatial Markov probability transi-tion matrices to predict long-term evolution trends.The research findings are as follows:(1)Regions with ad-vantages in high-quality marine economic development are concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta,the Pearl River Delta,and the Bohai Rim Economic Zone.Among them,Liaoning,Shandong,Zhejiang,Fujian,and Guangdong maintain high-quality cycles;Tianjin,Hebei,and Guangxi are in low-quality cycles;and Hainan has achieved leap-frog development,transitioning from a thin dog to a young child type and then to a star and Taurus type.(2)From 2010 to 2021,interprovincial differences in the high-quality development level of the national marine economy initially increased and then decreased.The number of high-level provinces has significantly increased,and the per-formance of low-level provinces has also improved,leading to enhanced balance.(3)High-quality development of the national marine economy presents a balanced trend between the north and south.The south is led by Zhejiang,Fujian,and Guangdong,whereas the north is supported by Shandong's high-level performance.(4)The probability of maintaining the original state of high-quality development of the national marine economy in the future is high,with the phenomenon of"club convergence"—tending toward convergence at low and high development levels.