基于创新趋势分析方法的三门峡库区降水变异分析OA

In response to the unclear mechanism of precipitation variation in the Sanmenxia Reservoir area of the Yellow River Basin and the difficulty of traditional trend analysis methods in capturing internal structural changes in the sequence,innovative trend analysis(ITA),innovative polygon trend analysis(IPTA),and innovative trend pivot analysis method(ITPAM)were comprehensively applied to systematically analyze the multi-scale variation characteristics of the precipitation sequence at the Sanmenxia weather station from 1957 to 2020.And they were compared with traditional trend testing methods such as the Mann-Kendall trend test.The results showed that both the annual precipitation at the Sanmenxia weather station and the high-value category showed a significant downward trend,with a statistic S=-1.031.The overall change in the monthly average precipitation over many years was re-latively uniform,but from July to September,a compound pattern of"trend reduction-large variation-high risk le-vel"emerged.The maximum both 1 d and 5 d precipitation showed a significant downward trend,but the precipita-tion intensity significantly increased(S=0.069),indicating a transformation of the regional precipitation pattern towards"low frequency high intensity".Compared with traditional methods,the innovative trend analysis methods could better identify and detaily analyze different time scales,different value zones,and different risk levels of time series,and had greater flexibility advantages.