基于GAM的海阳近海三疣梭子蟹资源丰度与环境因子的关系OA

Based on survey data of Portunus trituberculatus in the Haiyang offshore area from 2010 to 2024 and corresponding environmental data—including sea surface temperature(SST),salinity(Sal),dissolved oxygen concentration(DO),and chlorophyll-a concentration(Chl-a)from May to August each year—we employed a Generalized Additive Model(GAM)to analyze the relationship between P.trituberculatus abundance and these four key environmental factors.The results revealed that the total deviance explained by the GAMs ranged from 62.8%to 80.4%across the months,with the highest explanatory power(80.4%)in May,indicating that environ-mental conditions in May had the strongest influence in August P.trituberculatus abundance.Among the environ-mental variables in May,SST contributed the most(44.8%)to the model's explanatory power.The study suggests that environmental factors of the May,particularly SST,are critical in predicting August P.trituberculatus abun-dance,providing a scientific basis for forecasting crab populations using early-season environmental indicators.