人口老龄化、政策响应与社会养老保障承载力OA

Under the pressure of population aging,how to balance growing elderly care demands with limited system supply capacity and promote efficient and stable development of social old-age security systems has become a critical challenge.This paper introduces the concept of carrying capacity of social old-age security systems and,based on the Pressure-State-Response(PSR)Theory,constructs a comprehensive analytical framework of"population pressure quantification-dynamic capacity assessment-policy effect simulation"to systematically address three key questions:what is the current carrying capacity,what will happen in the future,and how to optimize and improve it.Findings reveal that:1)From 2011 to 2022,China's social old-age security carrying capacity exhibited an overall fluctuating upward trend during the sample period,with economic carrying capacity maintaining steady growth and service carrying capacity achieving leapfrog development.However,the surge in elderly population has led to a substantial increase in overloaded regions.2)Numerical simulation results indicate that China's social old-age security carrying capacity will contract by 8.84%-20.12%from 2023 to 2035,with economic carrying capacity declining by 10.63%-20.40%and service carrying capacity dropping by 30.00%-37.10%,intensifying resource allocation imbalances.3)Policy effect evaluation reveals that:First,the delayed retirement policy significantly enhances carrying capacity by 21.0%-31.1%through buffering effects,while the individual pension policy exerts amplification effects of 3.8%-18.1%,yet neither single policy can achieve system equilibrium;Second,the"fertility support-pension adjustment-retirement flexibility"policy coordination framework performs optimally,boosting carrying capacity by 62.54%-102.68%,with the combination of enhanced pension schemes and highly flexible retirement under high-fertility scenarios proving most effective;Finally,economic carrying capacity responds sensitively to policy combinations,while service dimension improvements remain limited,necessitating accelerated development of the social elderly care service system.