人口学视野下APC方法的困境及解决策略OA

Research on elderly health is closely linked to temporal factors such as age,period and cohort(APC).These three factors collectively form a fundamental theoretical model in social science research.The Lexis diagram in demography provides a basic analytical framework for this model,while the later-developed APC three-dimensional analysis model attempts to operationalize it statistically.Despite its inherent"natural defects",the model seeks to address the"identification problem"through statistical techniques and conceptual refinements.Using the HAPC(Hierarchical Age-Period-Cohort)model as an example,this paper argues that the proper application of the APC model should emphasize cohort grouping based on theoretical considerations and clearly define the scope of conclusions.Following these steps,the study analyzes the social differentiation and evolution of health among China's elderly population.The HAPC model reveals the true age effects across different birth cohorts,demonstrating that education and income contribute to robust and persistent social disparities in health among Chinese elderly,transcending age and cohort boundaries.Furthermore,the evolution of social stratification in elderly health exhibits both age and cohort effects,which cannot be fully explained by the cumulative advantage/disadvantage theory,mortality selection or the expansion of morbidity hypothesis alone.Future research on the APC model may achieve breakthroughs in paradigm shifts,intra-cohort trajectory refinement and data utilization.