婚姻匹配、性别观念与离婚风险OA
Marriage Matching,Gender Concepts and Divorce Risk:An Analysis Based on CFPS Data
以"婚姻异质性假说"为前提假设,运用中国家庭追踪调查(CFPS)2010-2022年数据,聚焦父母教育匹配和夫妻教育匹配,实证考察了婚姻匹配对离婚风险的影响及其作用机理.研究发现,父母教育匹配和夫妻教育匹配对离婚风险都存在显著影响,家庭背景匹配效应在离婚风险中存在.改革开放前期中等学历同质婚的离婚风险较高,改革开放深化期夫妻教育同质婚的离婚风险较低,其中高等学历同质婚稳定性最好,父母教育低等学历同质婚的离婚风险较高.在异质婚中,夫妻教育女高男低型的离婚风险较高,父母教育男高女低型的离婚风险较高.随着中国式现代化推进,异质婚与同质婚的离婚风险差异缩小.性别观念在夫妻教育匹配对离婚风险影响中存在中介效应.建议倡导婚姻匹配的开放性和性别平等观念,注重家教和家风建设,维护婚姻家庭的和谐稳定.
Taking"Marriage Heterogeneity Hypothesis"as the premise and focusing on parental and spousal educational matching,this paper empirically examines the impact of marriage matching on divorce risk and its underlying mechanisms by using the data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)from 2010 to 2022.The empirical results demonstrate that both spousal and parental educational matching exert statistically significant effects on divorce risks,with family background matching effects persisting in the divorce risk mechanism.During the initial phase of China's reform and opening-up,medium-education homogeneous marriages(couples both with secondary education)exhibited higher divorce risks.In contrast,the deepening reform period saw significantly lower divorce risks among educationally-homogeneous couples,with tertiary-education homogeneous marriages demonstrating the highest stability.Conversely,parental low-education homogeneous marriages(parents both with minimal schooling)was associated with elevated divorce risks.Marriages characterized by female-hypergamous educational matching(wives more educated than husbands)exhibit significantly higher divorce risks.Similarly,parental marriage with male-hypergamous educational matching(fathers more educated than mothers)are associated with elevated divorce risks.However,as China-style modernization progresses,the disparity in divorce risks between heterogeneous and homogeneous marriages has narrowed.Gender concepts exhibit a significant mediating effect in the relationship between spousal educational matching and divorce risks.To promote marital harmony and stability,policymakers should advocate for open-minded attitudes toward marriage matching and the concept of gender equality,and pay attention to the construction of family education and family traditions.
ZHANG Bo;DING Jinhong
Government Administration School||Shanghai University of Political Science and Law,Shanghai 20170,ChinaInstitute of Population Studies||East China Normal University,Shanghai 200241,China
社会科学
离婚风险婚姻匹配婚姻稳定性婚姻异质性假说性别观念
divorce riskmarriage matchingmarital stabilitymarriage heterogeneity hypothesisgender concepts
《人口与经济》 2026 (1)
60-73,14
国家社会科学基金项目"离婚冷静期婚姻关系修复的社会干预机制研究"(24BSH092).
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