极端枯水条件下流域经济社会分层需水分析方法OA
Methodology for Analyzing Stratified Social-Economic Water Demand in Basin During Extreme Low-Flow Conditions
为提升极端枯水条件下黄河流域水资源安全保障能力,将经济社会需水划分为刚性、刚弹性、弹性 3 个层次,并从刚性需水中进一步界定出极端枯水条件下必须保障的底线需水,建立了各层次需水的分层原则与阈值确定方法,并对黄河流域 2022 年实际用水量与 2035 年预测需水量进行了分层量化.结果表明:2022 年黄河流域经济社会用水量为 409.41 亿m3,其中底线、刚性、刚弹性、弹性用水量占比分别为 61.73%、76.03%、11.40%、12.57%;预测 2035 年需水量将增至 510.89 亿m3,上述 4 类需水量占比分别为61.26%、74.12%、16.26%、9.62%.在 1991-2002 年连续枯水情景下,2022 年底线用水及 2035 年底线需水均无法得到保障,表明极端枯水条件下黄河流域经济社会底线需水仍面临难以保障风险.因此,需要加快推进跨流域调水工程建设,以增强极端枯水条件下黄河流域最基本供水安全的保障能力.
In order to enhance the capability of water resources security assurance in river basins during extreme low-flow conditions,this pa-per categorized social-economic water demand into three tiers:rigid,resilient,and flexible.Furthermore,it identified the inviolable bottom-line water demand within the rigid demand tier under extreme low-flow conditions.This paper established hierarchical principles and a thresh-old identification methodology for water demand at each tier and quantitatively presented the stratified outcomes for both the social-economic water use in the Yellow River Basin for the year 2022 and the projected social-economic water demand for 2035.The results indicate that the total social-economic water use in the Yellow River Basin in 2022 was 40.941 billion m3,with the bottom-line,rigid,resilient,and flexible water use accounting for 61.73%,76.03%,11.40%,and 12.57%,respectively.It is projected that water demand will increase to 51.089 billion m3 by 2035,with the corresponding proportions being 61.26%,74.12%,16.26%,and 9.62%.Under the inflow scenario of the con-secutive low-flow period from 1991 to 2002,neither the 2022 bottom-line water use nor the 2035 bottom-line water demand could be fully met.This reflects the significant risk of disruption to the bottom-line water demand in the Yellow River Basin during extreme low-flow periods.Therefore,it is imperative to accelerate the construction of inter-basin water transfer projects to enhance the safeguarding capability for the most basic water supply security in the Yellow River Basin under extreme low-flow conditions.
SHANG Wenxiu;WANG Yu;ZHENG Xiaokang
Yellow River Engineering Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou 450003,China||Key Laboratory of Water Management and Water Security for Yellow River Basin,Ministry of Water Resources,Zhengzhou 450003,ChinaYellow River Conservancy Commission,Zhengzhou 450003,ChinaYellow River Engineering Consulting Co.,Ltd.,Zhengzhou 450003,China||Key Laboratory of Water Management and Water Security for Yellow River Basin,Ministry of Water Resources,Zhengzhou 450003,China
建筑与水利
极端枯水刚性需水刚弹性需水弹性需水底线需水黄河流域
extreme low-flowrigid water demandresilient water demandflexible water demandbottom-line water demandYellow River Basin
《人民黄河》 2026 (1)
67-74,8
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202300)中原学者获资助项目(254000510001)
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