上有老,下有小:家庭养老压力对生育意愿的影响OA

Against the backdrop of rapid aging and birth rates declining,Chinese families face double care pressures for"the elderly and the young".Drawing on data from the 2025 China Social Governance Survey,this study analyzes the mechanism by which family elderly care burdens influence fer-tility intentions through an intergenerational distribution perspective,employing OLS and bivariate Probit models.Findings reveal that family elderly care burdens significantly suppress fertility intentions.This conclusion remains robust after endogeneity treatment and stability tests,with a stronger in-hibitory effect on multi-child fertility intentions than on single-child intentions.This suppression is more pronounced in urban areas among those with modern elderly care concepts and who are highly educated.Mechanism tests indicate that:inter-generational caregiving acts as a buffer that mitigates care pressure and boosts fertility;the financial support from the elderly to the young amplifies the negative impact as elderly care pressure mounts;The conflict between self-fulfillment and filial duties intensifies the adverse relationship between elderly care pressure and fertility intentions.The findings deepen our understanding of how family elderly care burdens shape reproductive choices and offer policy insights for constructing a public service system of"supporting the elderly and young together"and unlocking China's fertility potential.