广东省工业减污降碳时空演变及影响因素研究OA

Exploring the spatial and temporal characteristics and its driven factors of Pollution Reduction and Carbon Reduction(PRCR)in the industrial sector is of great significance for achieving the goals of Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality,as well as for accelerating the comprehensive green transformation of economic and social development pattern.This paper constructs an evaluation indexes system on the effects of PRCR in industrial sector during 2000-2006 in 21 prefecture-level cities in Guangdong Province,and analyzes its spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and influencing factors with the models of spatial and temporal geographically weighted regression,spatial auto-correlation,and random forest algorithm.The research results are as follows:(1)From 2006 to 2020,the overall trend of industrial PRCR in 21 cities in Guangdong Province was well and decreased from 0.88 in 2006 to 0.74 in 2020.The evaluation indexes had strong spatial agglomeration characteristics during 2007-2013 and in 2017,and the provincial industrial PRCR evaluation indexes showed significant spatial and temporal differentiation characteristics.(2)From 2006 to 2020,the overall spatial pattern of the industrial PRCR evaluation indexes was low in the Pearl River Delta core cities and high in the eastern,western and northern cities.In terms of spatial and temporal variation,the industrial PRCR evaluation indexes showed an obvious expansion trend in areas below the medium value,and the low range value spread from Guangzhou and Shenzhen in Pearl River Delta area to Meizhou,Shaoguan and Qingyuan,etc.in the ecological protection areas in northern Guangdong,and showed a changing trend of aggregation-dispersion in the spatial agglomeration characteristic.(3)The results were all negative in the GTWR model regression coefficients of the tertiary industry's support for the industry,the development level of high-tech manufacturing,energy consumption efficiency and carbon emission rights trading pilot,and its impact importance level was varied spatially.(4)During the 11th and 13th Five-Year Plan,the key factors in promoting industrial PRCR had always been the development level of high-tech manufacturing industries and the proportion of internal R&D expenditure of industrial enterprises above the designated size.In addition,other important factors for the green industry development are rising such as the degree of economic agglomeration,the level of industrial scale,and the support of the tertiary industry.