基于ECO-ABM模型的互花米草种子漂移扩散数值模拟研究OA北大核心

This study used a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model,MIKE21,to reconstruct the hydrodynamic field.An ECO-ABM model was developed to characterize the movement of Spartina alterniflora seeds using agent-based modeling(ABM),which considers the physical characteristics of the seeds.An area with S.alterniflora distribution between the Tauer River and Chaohe estuaries in Binzhou,Shandong Province,China,was used as a case study region.The long-distance dispersal ability of seeds in 12 distribution blocks and the relationship between each block were assessed.The maximum average absolute errors of the simulated tide level,current velocity,and direc-tion were-8.23 cm,-11.69 cm/s,and-21.35°,respectively.Thus,realistic hydrodynamic conditions can be pro-vided by the hydrodynamic model.The empirical results of the ECO-ABM model showed that the average migra-tion probabilities of seeds in blocks 1,3,8,and 10 were 90%,70%,55%,and 45%when the starting flow velocity was 0.01-0.15 m/s,and the maximum migration distances were 38.7,49.4,32.1,and 16.8 km,respectively.They indicated that the hydrodynamic conditions,water depth topography,and physical characteristics of the seeds markedly affected their drift and diffusion.In terms of long-distance dispersal,no obvious trend in seed dispersal was observed along the coast of the study area east of Laizhou Bay.At least two potential high-risk areas were identified along the coast.Additionally,a seed migration relationship between multiple blocks was discovered,es-pecially between blocks 5,8,and 10-12.From the perspective of sexual reproduction,it was speculated that blocks 5 and 8 might be the source for S.alterniflora outbreak and reproduction in this area.These results provide a scien-tific reference for the effective control of S.alterniflora in Bohai Bay,and the research method has a regional ex-pansion value.