基于D-S证据理论的地铁站安全风险评估方法OA北大核心

The safety risk assessment of high-density passenger flow holds significant importance for improving the emergency response capabilities of urban metro systems.To address t traditional methods'limitations,such as inad-equate indicator systems,insufficient integration of multi-source data,and low assessment accuracy,an enhanced Dempster-Shafer(D-S)evidence theory method was proposed.This method is structured around a five-dimensional indicator system encompassing personnel,equipment,passenger flow,environmental conditions,and management protocols.Comprehensive weights were determined through Game Theory-Combinatorial Empowerment.The safety level membership degrees of each indicator were quantified using a fuzzy half-gradient affiliation function,while an evidence similarity matrix is constructed via Jousselme's evidential distance function.To address high-conflict evi-dence,a calibration factor α,and adjustment parameter μ,are introduced to refine the fusion process,where the final risk level derived through a linear weighted method.A case study was conducted at Ningbo Metro Gulou Station,utilizing holiday evening peak passenger flow data and expert evaluations to establish a multi-source evidence set for validation.The results demonstrated that:①Compared to the traditional D-S method and Yager's method,the proposed approach reduces average evidence conflicts by 34.4%and 8.5%,respectively;②The membership grade of the critical"passenger flow"indicator has an R3 rank value reaches 0.8202,confirming the method's effective-ness in characterizing scenarios of high-density passenger flow;③The proposed method exhibits robust adaptability and stability,with an error rate below 5%in the comparison of multiple scenarios.These findings provided action-able insights for identifying and mitigating risks in metro systems under high-density passenger flow conditions.