基于盛行交通流的终端空域运行风险评估方法OA北大核心

The characterization and assessment of operational risks represent critical steps in enhancing airspace op-erational safety and management capabilities,particularly in structurally complex terminal airspaces with multiple intersecting arrival and departure flows.Traditional collision risk models predominantly focus on preemptive sin-gle-aircraft conflict detection and fixed-routes,exhibiting limitations in characterizing terminal airspace operational structures and analyzing post-conflict risks.This study develops a methodology that extracts prevalent traffic flows from historical trajectory data through clustering,which identifies geometric configurations of conflict scenarios and incorporating aircraft maneuvering adjustments.By analyzing the spatiotemporal distribution in risk-prone ar-eas,an assessment metric defined as the expected collision frequency per unit time was constructed to quantify the operational risk.Cumulative aggregation across diverse temporal and spatial scales enables risk quantification and hotspot identification,thereby facilitating operational evaluations,early warnings for high-risk traffic flows and spa-tiotemporal hotspots,and providing guidance for air traffic control,tactical planning,and airspace construction.A case study of Guangzhou Baiyun Airport validates the model's effectiveness in risk characterization and hotspot de-tection,Key findings include:Conflict risks between arrival flows constitute the primary risk category;The depar-ture flow of VIBOS requires attention under northbound operation;Temporal risk hotspots are concentrated between 13:00-14:00 and 22:00-02:00.