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基于SEER数据库的宫颈鳞癌预后预测模型构建及分析OA

Construction and analysis of a prognostic prediction model for cervical squamous cell carcinoma based on the SEER database

中文摘要英文摘要

目的 探究宫颈鳞癌患者的临床病理特征对预后的影响,构建宫颈鳞癌预后预测模型.方法 回顾性分析 2010 年 1 月 1 日至 2020 年 12 月 31 日SEER数据库中 5189 例宫颈鳞癌患者资料,采用单、多因素Cox比例风险回归模型,分析影响宫颈鳞癌患者总生存期的潜在因素;采用Kaplan-Meier法进行分层生存分析,构建基于危险因素的预后预测模型,利用ROC曲线、校准曲线及决策曲线分析评估模型效能.结果 研究发现年龄、N分期、M分期、AJCC分期、化疗、肿瘤大小和淋巴结检测数目是宫颈鳞癌患者的独立预后因素,年龄≥65岁、淋巴结转移、远处转移、肿瘤直径大于2 cm及未进行淋巴结检测的患者死亡风险较高(P<0.05).模型具有良好的预测准确性和临床适用性.结论 研究基于SEER数据构建的预后模型结果强调了关键预后因素对生存的影响,为宫颈鳞癌患者的个体化治疗方案提供了依据.

Objective To explore the impact of clinicopathological characteristics on the prognosis of cervical squamous cell carcinoma(CSCC)patients and to construct a prognostic prediction model.Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted on data from 5189 CSCC patients in the SEER database from January 1,2010,to December 31,2020.Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to identify potential factors influencing overall survival(OS).Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed for stratified analysis,and a prognostic prediction model based on risk factors was constructed.The model's performance was evaluated using ROC curves,calibration curves,and decision curve analysis.Results Age,N stage,M stage,AJCC stage,chemotherapy,tumor size,and number of lymph nodes examined were identified as independent prognostic factors for cervical squamous cell carcinoma.Patients aged≥65 years,with lymph node metastasis,distant metastasis,tumor diameter>2 cm,or without lymph node examination had higher mortality risks(P<0.05).The model demonstrated good predictive accuracy and clinical applicability.Conclusion The prognostic model constructed based on SEER data highlights the impact of key prognostic factors on survival and provides a basis for individualized treatment plans for patients with cervical squamous cell carcinoma.

努尔比亚·依比布拉;路鹏霏;张华

新疆医科大学第一附属医院肿瘤中心,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830000新疆医科大学第一附属医院肿瘤中心,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830000新疆医科大学第一附属医院肿瘤中心,新疆 乌鲁木齐 830000

医药卫生

宫颈鳞癌预测模型SEER数据库预后列线图

Cervical squamous cell carcinomaPrediction modelSEER databasePrognosisNomogram

《中国医药科学》 2025 (13)

4-8,142,6

省部共建中亚高发病成因与防治国家重点实验室开放课题项目(SKL-HIDCA-2020-GJ5).

10.20116/j.issn2095-0616.2025.13.01

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