为掌握影响肉牛养殖和牛肉价格的关键因素,同时,也为肉牛养殖产业提供参考,利用数据分析软件对2013-2023年调查到的影响康乐县牛肉产业发展情况的相关因素数据进行分析.结果表明,项目扶持资金与当地牛饲养量、能繁母牛数量呈显著正相关,R2分别为0.688、0.633.在国内牛肉消费总量基本大于进口牛肉与国内牛肉生产总量之和的前提下,国内牛肉消费总量与康乐县架子牛价格、净牛肉价格分别呈极显著正相关和显著正相关,R2分别为0.792和0.654;全国进口牛肉数量与康乐县净牛肉价格和架子牛价格呈显著正相关和极显著正相关,R2分别为0.654和0.792;进口牛肉均价与当地净牛肉价格、架子牛价格均呈显著正相关,R2均为0.705.猪肉价格与当地净牛肉价格呈显著正相关,R2为0.609.
In order to grasp the key factors affecting beef cattle farming and beef prices,and to provide direction for national beef cattle farming,the author used data analysis software to analyze the relevant factor data that affected the development of the beef industry in Kangle County from 2013 to 2023.The results show that there is a significant positive correlation between project support funds and the local cattle breeding quantity and the number of breeding cows,with R2 values of 0.688 and 0.633,respectively.On the premise that the total consumption of domestic beef is basically greater than the sum of imported beef and domestic beef production,the total consumption of domestic beef is significantly positively correlated with the prices of rack beef and net beef in Kangle County,with R2 values of 0.792 and 0.654,respectively;The quantity of imported beef in China is significantly positively correlated with the net beef price and shelf beef price in Kangle County,with R2 values of 0.654 and 0.792,respectively;The average price of imported beef is significantly positively correlated with local net beef prices and shelf beef prices,with R2 values of 0.705.The price of pork is significantly positively correlated with the local net beef price,with an R2 of 0.609.
于建梅;马孝慧
甘肃省康乐县林草事业发展中心,甘肃 康乐 731500甘肃省康乐县特色农业发展中心,甘肃 康乐 731500
畜牧业
影响;肉牛产业;因素;分析;建议
influence;the beef cattle industry;factors;analysis;suggestions
《现代畜牧科技》 2024 (007)
140-143 / 4
10.19369/j.cnki.2095-9737.2024.07.040
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