基于灾害风险分析原理,利用广西89个国家级气象站1970-2020年气象观测数据和广西各主产市(县)早稻种植面积、产量资料,以及相关地理信息数据等,从灾害致灾因子危险性、承灾体暴露度、承灾体脆弱性以及防灾减灾能力等方面筛选风险评估指标,采用灾害风险指数法、层次分析法等技术方法构建了广西双季早稻高温热害的风险评估模型,并利用GIS技术对广西早稻高温热害进行了风险评估分析和精细化风险区划.结果表明:广西早稻高温热害的综合风险高值区主要位于左江河谷、右江河谷区域和桂中盆地等;低风险区主要分布在桂西北和桂北山区.本研究结果可为广西早稻生产趋利避害、优化布局、防灾减灾提供决策参考.
Based on disaster risk analysis principle,meteorological observational data from 1970 to 2020 from 89 national weather stations in Guangxi,the planting area and yield data of early rice in major production counties in Guangxi,as well as relevant geographic information data,the risk assessment indicators were screened from the aspects of the hazard of disaster-causing factors,vulnerability of disaster-affected bodies and disaster prevention and reduction capabilities.The disaster risk index method and analytic hierarchy process were used to construct a risk assessment model for the high-temperature damage risk of early rice in Guangxi.The GIS technology was employed to perform fine zoning analysis of high temperature heat risk for early rice in Guangxi.The results show that the areas of high comprehensive risk of high temperature and heat damage of early rice are mainly located near the left and right rivers valleys,the Guizhong basin,while low-risk areas are mainly distributed in the northwestern and northorn mountainous areas of Guangxi.The results of this study can provide reference for early rice production in Guangxi to seek advantages and avoid disadvantages,optimize the layout,and prevent and reduce disasters.
谭孟祥;何燕;莫建飞;谢映
广西壮族自治区气象科学研究所,广西 南宁 530022
植物保护学
双季早稻;高温热害;风险评估;精细化区划
Double-cropping early rice;High temperature and heat damage;Risk assessment;Fine regionalization
《江西农业学报》 2024 (003)
10-15 / 6
中国气象局气象能力提升联合研究专项"广西双季稻高温热害风险预测预警与评估区划研究"(22NLTSY013);广西气象科研计划重点项目"基于3S技术的水稻冷热精细化风险预警技术研发与应用";广西科技重点研发计划项目"基于3S技术的水稻高温热害预测监测和灾害区划技术研究与示范"(桂科AB17195037).
10.19386/j.cnki.jxnyxb.2024.03.002
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