子宫内膜癌肝转移患者生存预测模型的建立与验证OACSTPCD

Objective:To establish a prognostic nomogram to predict overall survival(OS)in patients with endometrial cancer liver metastases(ECLM).Methods:Patients diag-nosed with ECLM between 2010 and 2018 were retrieved from the SEER database and randomly divided into training cohort and validation cohort.The independent risk factors related to prog-nosis were determined through univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis,and these variables were incorporated and used to construct the nomogram model.The predictive accuracy and clinical utility of the nomogram model were validated by C-index,ROC curves,calibration curves and decision curve analysis(DCA).The effect of different variables on the survival probability of ECLM patients was analyzed by Kaplan-Meier method.Results:A total of 614 eli-gible patients were enrolled in this study from the SEER database,with a median survival of 7 months for ECLM patients.According to univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis,his-tological type,tumor size,surgery,chemotherapy,bone metastasis,and lung metastasis were in-dependent prognostic factors for OS in ECLM patients.A prognostic nomogram was constructed based on these variables.In the training cohort and validation cohort,the C-index of the model was 0.767(95%CI:0.745～0.789)and 0.744(95%CI:0.705～0.783).The ROC curves suggested that the model had good prediction accuracy.The calibration curves showed good con-sistency between the predicted and actual values of the model.Meanwhile,the DCA curves indi-cated that the nomogram model we developed has good clinical application value and potential.Conclusion:This study established a survival prediction model for ECLM patients to assist cli-nicians in assessing the prognosis and OS of patients,and to identifying appropriate treatment regimens in order to improve the prognosis of patients.