中国的气候变化政策关注程度与林业碳汇增长
Chinas Climate Change Policy Attention and Forestry Carbon Sequestration Growth
[目的]森林碳汇具有减缓和适应气候变化的重要作用。本文旨在解释中国的气候变化政策关注度对森林碳汇的影响机制及其影响异质性,进而从促进森林碳汇(FCS)增长的角度,为中国政府制相关政策提供一定的理论依据。[方法]本文借助中国政府工作报告和五年发展规划合成了反映中国政府对气候变化和林业重视程度的指标 CCPA,连同调整的美国的气候不确定性指标CPU和中国经济政策不确定性指标EPU,并考察这些指标对中国森林碳储量FCS的影响。具体地,使用 2000-2017年中国 30个省份形成的面板数据进行实证分析。[结果]基准回归表明CCPA能够显著促进FCS的增长,而CPU或EPU则能够抑制FCS的增长;交互效应回归表明,CCPA对FCS增长的促进作用,强于CPU或EPU对FCS增长的抑制作用;中介效应检验表明,CCPA 能够通过促进森林抚育面积增加、现有森林面积扩张、可再生能源消费量增长和绿色投资水平提高,进而促进FCS的增长;异质性分析表明,CCPA对FCS的影响呈现出明显的差异化特征。[结论]政府的气候政策关注度对森林碳汇的增长具有重要作用。
[Objective]Forest carbon sinks play an important role in climate change mitigation and adaptation.This article is expected to provide a theoretical basis for the Chinese government to develop relevant policies from the perspective of promoting ??????growth.[Methods]In this article,the Chinese Government's Work Reports and Five-Year Plans were used to construct an index named ??????????,which reflects the government's emphasis on climate change and forestry in China.This paper aims to examine the impact of the ??????????,the adjusted Climate Policy Uncertainty(??????)index from the U.S.,or the Economic Policy Uncertainty(????????)index from China on the Chinese forest carbon stocks(??????),comprehensively.On this basis,we are interested in clarifying the channels that promote the growth of forest carbon sequestration in China.Specifically,a panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2017 is used for empirical analysis.[Results]The baseline regression indicates that ??????????significantly promotes the growth of ??????,while ??????or ????????inhibits its growth;The interactive regression shows that the promoting effect of ??????????on ??????growth is stronger than the inhibiting effect of ??????or ????????;Mediation analysis documents that ??????????promotes ??????growth by increasing forest tending area,expanding existing forest area,increasing renewable energy consumption,and improving green investment;Heterogeneity analysis reveals a clear differentiation in the impact of ??????????on ??????.[Conclusion]
卢峰;孟佶贤;程宝栋;
北京林业大学经管学院 北京 10083;北京林业大学经管学院 北京 10083;北京林业大学经管学院 北京 10083##北京林业大学国家林草经贸研究院 北京 10083;
Climate Change Policy Attention Carbon Stock Forestry Carbon Sequestration Channel analysis
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