环塔里木盆地荒漠化风险识别与综合评估

[Objective]The Tarim Basin is an ecologically fragile region with extreme aridity,making desertification one of its prominent ecological problems.Desertification is influenced by both natural and anthropogenic factors,and timely and accurate monitoring and risk assessment are crucial for effective desertification control.However,a single assessment method has limitations,and ensuring the objective validity of the assessment method can improve the accuracy of desertification risk assessment.[Methods]This study establishes an evaluation system with 16 indicators in three categories(natural climate,human activities,and desertification monitoring status)based on the conceptual framework of"three-factor"risk.The entropy combination weighting method is used to construct a comprehensive evaluation index(CEI)for desertification risk,which is then analyzed and evaluated.The CEI is constructed using the entropy combination weighting method,and the risk level of potential desertification occurrence areas in the Ring Tarim Basin is evaluated from 1990 to 2021.[Results]The results show that:(1)in the three-factor weighting analysis,the exposure factor has the highest weight and the vulnerability factor has the lowest weight.The desertification risk in the western part of the Ring Tarim Basin is smaller than that in the eastern part,and the areas with higher risk,vulnerability,and exposure are concentrated in Greenland,while the areas with higher exposure are concentrated in the oasis.The higher risk areas are concentrated in the periphery of the oasis,the primary desert area has lower risk,and the oasis edge area is prone to desertification.(2)The desertification risk in the study area is mainly presented as very low risk,and the high risk and very high risk areas are narrowly and sparsely distributed,mainly in the edge of the oasis and the area of the settlements for industrial and mining use.The desertification risk in the primary desert area is relatively low,and the area above high risk only accounts for 3.0%of the overall area.(3)The 30-year desertification risk level in the study area generally shows that the conversion rate above high risk is slow,and the conversion rate below moderate risk is relatively fast.Low risk is converted to very low risk,and above high risk is converted to moderate-low risk.The area above high risk continues to decrease,the ecological environment improves,and the situation of high and very high risk is controlled year by year.(4)The single-factor analysis shows that land use type(0.68)is the main driving factor,and the two-factor interaction analysis shows that non-linear enhancement mainly dominates among the indicators.The most influential combinations were land use type∩livestock carrying capacity(0.78)and cropland∩livestock carrying capacity(0.78).[Conclusion]The risk level of potential desertification areas in the Tarim Basin is mainly affected by human factors,and rational land use planning and the development of intensive and efficiently operated arable land are effective strategies for desertification prevention and control.This study provides timely information on the regional desertification risk level,analyzes its spatial distribution pattern,reveals its influencing factors and response mechanism,and provides background data reference for effective desertification prevention and control work in extreme arid areas.