基于Biomad2组合模型预测气候变化下毛竹的潜在分布
Predicting the potential distribution of Moso bamboo under climate change based on the Biomod2 ensemble model
[目的]通过探究环境变化对毛竹(Phyllostachys edulis)分布的影响，为毛竹资源的保护和有效利用提供理论支撑。[方法]根据毛竹的115 条地理分布数据，结合10个气候、土壤及地形因子，基于Biomod2软件包构建组合模型，模拟我国毛竹的潜在分布区域，并在未来三种气候条件模式下预测其空间分布格局变化，并分析环境异常区域。[结果]基于11个最优单一模型构建的组合模型比单一模型对毛竹适生区预测结果更好，训练集平均受试者工作特征曲线下面积(AUC)和真实技巧统计值(TSS)分别为0.855 和0.957，预测准确度较高。日均温差(bio2)、最冷月的最低温度(bio6)、降水季节性(bio15)和海拔是限制毛竹分布的关键环境因素。当前毛竹潜在适生区为 152.74×104 km 2，主要位于中国东南部，与亚热带季风气候区大致重叠，其中，湖南、浙江、重庆南部、江西西部、安徽南部等地区为毛竹高度适生区。在未来的气候情景下，毛竹潜在适宜生境呈现不同程度的丧失，且呈向东北方向迁移趋势，其中高适生区面积持续缩减，中适生区更加破碎化。湖南、贵州、浙江和江西西部未来生境适宜度变化不大，可能成为未来毛竹的气候避难所，需要重点保护这些地区的种质。[结论]我国毛竹空间分布格局主要受水、热、海拔条件影响，毛竹潜在适生区面积将随气候变暖的程度持续减少。以毛竹作为笋材两用林进行引种造林时，造林地点应选择未来生境适宜度变化不大的地区，以降低未来由于气候变化造成的损失。
[Objective]By exploring the impact of environmental changes on the distribution of Moso bamboo(Phyllostachys edulis),this study aims to provide theoretical support for the conservation and effective utilization of Moso bamboo resources.[Method]Based on 115 geographic distribution data points of Moso bamboo,combined with 10 climate,soil,and topographic factors,a composite model was constructed using the Biomod2 software package to simulate the potential distribution areas of Moso bamboo in China.The spatial distribution pattern changes were predicted under three future climate scenarios,and abnormal environmental areas were analyzed.[Result]The composite model constructed based on 11 optimal individual models predicted the suitable habitat of Moso bamboo better than individual models,with an average Area Under the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve(AUC)and True Skill Statistic(TSS)of 0.855 and 0.957,respectively,indicating high prediction accuracy.The key environmental factors limiting the distribution of Moso bamboo are the mean diurnal range(bio2),the minimum temperature of the coldest month(bio6),precipitation seasonality(bio15),and altitude.The current potential suitable area for Moso bamboo is 152.74×10⁴ km2,mainly located in southeastern China,roughly overlapping with the subtropical monsoon climate zone.The areas highly suitable for Moso bamboo include southern Hunan,Zhejiang,southern Chongqing,western Jiangxi,and southern Anhui.Under future climate scenarios,the potential suitable habitat for Moso bamboo shows varying degrees of loss and a trend of shifting northeastward.The area of highly suitable habitats continues to shrink,and moderately suitable habitats become more fragmented.The suitability of future habitats in Hunan,Guizhou,Zhejiang,and western Jiangxi shows little change,possibly making these regions climate refuges for Moso bamboo,requiring focused conservation efforts.[Conclusion]The spatial distribution pattern of Moso bamboo in China is mainly influenced by water,temperature,and altitude conditions.The potential suitable area for Moso bamboo will continue to decrease with climate warming.When introducing Moso bamboo for dual-use as timber and shoots,afforestation sites should be chosen in areas with minimal future habitat suitability changes to reduce losses due to climate change.
谷瑞;邓紫云;范少辉;刘广路;
国际竹藤中心 北京 100102;国际竹藤中心 北京 100102;国际竹藤中心 北京 100102;国际竹藤中心 北京 100102;
毛竹 Biomod2 生态位模型 地理分布 气候变化 迁移预测
Moso bamboo Biomod2 niche model geographic distribution climate change migration prediction
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