气候变化背景下中国毛竹资源时空动态变化

[Objective]Climate change is an important driving force for species distribution.Understanding the response of plants to climate change can help develop corresponding management and protection measures.Moso Bamboo is an important forest resource widely distributed in tropical and subtropical regions,characterized by fast growth and high carbon accumulation.[Method]Based on 140 distribution records and 56 environmental variables,the Maxent model was used to simulate the geographical distribution of bamboo under current(1970-2000),future time periods(2021-2040,2041-2060,2061-2080,2081-2100),and different climate scenarios(ssp126,ssp245,ssp370,ssp585).[Result]When the regularization multiplier(RM)of the Maxent model is 3 and the feature parameter is LQH(linear-L,quadratic-Q and hinge-H),the AICc of the model is minimized,and this parameter combination is recommended for use in this study.The highly suitable areas for bamboo are located in Jiangxi,Zhejiang,Hunan,and Fujian(south of 33° N).The key factors affecting the geographical distribution of bamboo were determined using the knife cutting method and correlation analysis,including the precipitation of driest month(bio14),November precipitation(prec11),May precipitation(prec05),July lowest temperature(tmin07),and min temperature of coldest month(bio6).[Conclusion]Climate change(changes in precipitation and temperature)has caused the center of mass of the highly suitable area for moso bamboo to shift towards the southwest.Climate warming and increased precipitation are beneficial for the expansion of the suitable distribution area for bamboo,but the area of the highly suitable area has decreased.The research results are helpful for forest managers to develop appropriate management and protection strategies for bamboo,and provide theoretical basis for the management and development of bamboo under climate change.