“双碳”背景下京津冀林木碳汇发展潜力探究——基于灰色关联分析和熵权TOPSIS法
Exploration of the Development Potential of Forest Carbon Sequestration in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei Region under the Background of"Dual Carbon":Based on Grey Correlation Analysis and Entropy Weight TOPSIS Method
为了研究我国京津冀地区林木碳汇的影响因素，以更好的保护国家环境，促进“双碳”政策的顺利落实，促进人与自然和谐发展。以《中国统计年鉴》、《中国环境统计年鉴》为主要的数据来源，选取 2001-2021 近 20 年数据，选取林木碳汇为因变量，社会经济、森林资源、森林经营管理、环境规制为准则层，建立 12 个指标与因变量之间的灰色关联，以此为基础进行熵权法TOPSIS分析评价，在(TOPSIS)的基础上，建立障碍度模型，研究影响林木碳汇潜力的主要因素。结果表明，人口、活立木蓄积量、森林覆盖率、森林面积、森林蓄积量、人工林六个指标在京津冀三个省份与林木碳汇之间的关联度均大于 0.9，表现出强相关。同时，河北的相对接近度远远高于北京和天津，位于 0.8 以上，但是环境规制因素影响京津冀的林木碳汇潜力，且社会经济、环境规制两个方面严重影响着河北林木碳汇的发展。为此，我们要从社会经济、森林资源、森林经营管理、环境规制四个方面着手，因地制宜，挖掘碳汇潜力，切实解决人与自然和谐发展问题。
In order to study the influencing factors of forest carbon sequestration in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region of China,in order to better protect the national environment,promote the smooth implementation of the"dual carbon"policy,and promote the harmonious development of humans and nature.Using the"China Statistical Yearbook"and"China Environmental Statistical Yearbook"as the main data sources,data from the past 20 years from 2001 to 2021 were selected.Forest carbon sink was chosen as the dependent variable,and social economy,forest resources,forest management,and environmental regulation were used as the criterion layer to establish a grey correlation between 12 indicators and the dependent variable.Based on this,entropy weight method TOPSIS analysis and evaluation were conducted.On the basis of TOPSIS,an obstacle degree model was established to study the main factors affecting the potential of forest carbon sink.The results showed that the correlation between population,standing timber volume,forest coverage,forest area,forest volume,and artificial forests in the three provinces of Beijing Tianjin Hebei was greater than 0.9,indicating a strong correlation.At the same time,the relative closeness of Hebei is much higher than that of Beijing and Tianjin,at over 0.8.However,environmental regulatory factors affect the potential of forest carbon sequestration in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region,and the development of forest carbon sequestration in Hebei is seriously affected by both socio-economic and environmental regulations.To this end,we need to start from four aspects:social economy,forest resources,forest management,and environmental regulation,adapt to local conditions,tap into the potential of carbon sinks,and effectively solve the problem of harmonious development between humans and nature.
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