农业生产性服务业发展与农业碳排放：非线性关系及门槛效应
Development of agricultural producer services and agricultural carbon emission;Nonlinear relationship and threshold effect
[目的]实证分析农业生产性服务业发展对农业碳排放的影响效应。[方法]基于 2010-2022年中国 31个省(区、市)的面板数据，对各地区的农业碳排放量进行测算，利用双向固定效应模型、门槛模型、空间滞后模型(SLM)检验农业生产性服务业发展和农业碳排放之间的非线性关系与门槛效应。[结论]结果表明:农业生产性服务业发展与农业碳排放之间存在先上升后下降的非线性关系，表现为倒“U”型的趋势特征;农业生产性服务业发展对农业碳排放的影响存在基于农地经营规模的双重门槛效应，农业生产性服务业发展对农业碳排放的负向作用在农地经营规模跨过第一个门槛值后显著增强，农地经营规模跨过第二个门槛值后负向作用转变为正向;北方地区基于自然条件和农机化程度优势，其农业生产性服务业发展对农业碳排放的负向作用大于南方地区;农业生产性服务业发展对农业碳排放的影响存在负向空间溢出效应，邻近地区的农业生产性服务业发展水平提升能显著促进本地区农业碳排放的减少。据此，建议通过推动农业生产性服务业转型升级、提升农业生产性服务主体的专业性和规模化程度、实施差异化农业碳减排政策、建设农业生产性服务业信息平台等方式，促进高质量农业生产性服务的跨区域流动，形成区域协同碳减排的良好态势。
[Objective]The objective was to empirically analyze the impact of the development of agricultural producer services on agricultural carbon emissions.[Method]Based on the panel data of 31 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)in China from 2010 to 2022,the agricultural carbon emissions in each region were calculated,and the nonlinear relationship and threshold effect between the development of agricultural producer services and agricultural carbon emissions were tested by using two-way fixed effect model,threshold model and spatial lag model(SLM).[Conclusion]The results show that there is a nonlinear relationship between the development of agricultural producer services and agricultural carbon emissions,which shows an inverted"U"trend.The impact of the development of agricultural producer services on agricultural carbon emissions has a double threshold effect based on the scale of agricultural land management.The negative effect of the development of agricultural producer services on agricultural carbon emissions is significantly enhanced after the scale of agricultural land management crosses the first threshold,and the negative effect becomes positive after the scale of agricultural land management crosses the second threshold.Based on the advantages of natural conditions and agricultural mechanization,the negative effect of the development of agricultural producer services on agricultural carbon emissions in northern China is greater than that in southern China.The development of agricultural producer services has a negative spatial spillover effect on agricultural carbon emissions,and the improvement of the development level of agricultural producer services in neighboring areas can significantly promote the reduction of agricultural carbon emissions in this region.Accordingly,it is suggested to promote the trans-regional flow of high-quality agricultural producer services by promoting the transformation and upgrading of agricultural producer services,enhancing the professionalism and scale of agricultural producer services,implementing differentiated agricultural carbon emission reduction policies,and building an information platform for agricultural producer services,so as to form a good trend of regional coordinated carbon emission reduction.
章语嫣;杨建州;
福建农林大学 经济与管理学院,福建 福州 350000;福建农林大学 经济与管理学院,福建 福州 350000;
Q958.15;S154.5
agricultural productive services agricultural carbon emissions inverted"u"relationship threshold effect
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