同群效应视角下生态减贫成效对农户政策感知的影响——基于生态脆弱民族地区的实证研究

[Objective]Under the condition that the ecological poverty reduction policy promotes the continuous growth of farmers ' income and the widening of the income gap within rural areas, it is of great significance to study the effect of ecological poverty reduction on the policy perception of farmers' implementation of local policies and the development of social, economic and political systems, to refine the design and implementation of ecological poverty reduction policies, to avoid further widening of the income gap between farmers, to curb relative poverty within rural areas, and to achieve rural revitalization and common prosperity. [Method]Based on the survey data of China's ecologically fragile ethnic areas in 2023, this paper divides policy perception into policy evaluation and system perception and uses the Oprobit model to focus on the influencing factors of the peer effect of ecological poverty reduction effect on farmers ' policy evaluation and system perception. On this basis, the mediating effect model and the moderating effect model are used to analyze the existing mechanism and path. [Result]1) Farmers ' policy evaluation and institutional perception have significant negative peer effects on ecological poverty reduction, and the coefficients are −0.09 and −0.08, respectively. The conclusion is still valid after a series of robustness analyses such as the CMP model and placebo test. 2) In terms of intermediary mechanism, forestry dependence and income expectation play a partial mediating effect of -21.68 % and -11.54 % on policy evaluation, respectively, but have no significant mediating effect on institutional perception; 3) The adjustment mechanism shows that the information transmission mechanism can strengthen the inhibitory effect of the peer effect of ecological poverty reduction on policy evaluation and institutional perception. The social norm mechanism and the effectiveness of ecological poverty reduction have a certain substitution effect in the peer effect that affects farmers ' local policy evaluation and institutional perception. 4) The peer effect of ecological poverty reduction is heterogeneous. The demonstration effect of policy evaluation and institutional perception in the peer effect of ecological poverty reduction is more significant in the group of farmers over 50 years old and with lower human capital, and forestry productive income, wage income, and property income can promote the peer effect of ecological poverty reduction in the policy evaluation and institutional perception of farmers. [Conclusion]Therefore, the top-level design of ecological poverty reduction policy should be further optimized to promote the rational distribution of rural forestry industry income; broaden the channels of ecological poverty reduction and income increase, and improve the measures for farmers to prevent poverty return; strengthen the construction of rural digital infrastructure and establish a policy information transmission platform; fully consider the ' demonstration effect' of group behavior and implement differentiated policies for specific groups; explore diversified sources of forestry income and encourage farmers to innovate and develop forestry projects.