新质生产力赋能林业经济增长——基于门槛效应与空间溢出效应的实证分析
New quality productivity empowers forestry economic growth——An Empirical Analysis Based on Threshold Effect and Spatial Spillover Effect
[目的]新质生产力是驱动林业高质量发展的强劲动能，研究新质生产力对林业经济增长的影响，有助于为林业生产实现“双碳”目标提供新思路。[方法]文章基于 2012-2022 年我国30 个省份的面板数据，测算各地区新质生产力发展指数，利用双向固定效应模型、门槛效应模型和空间杜宾模型研究新质生产力对林业经济增长的影响。[结论]结果表明:(1)中国各省份新质生产力和林业经济发展水平均处于稳步上升态势。样本考察期内，除北京、辽宁、吉林、上海之外，其余 26 省份林业经济均呈上升趋势且以贵州增幅最大，所有省份新质生产力发展水平均表现出增长态势且以山东增幅最大。(2)新质生产力对林业经济增长的影响存在“N”型非线性关系，即林业经济增长会随着新质生产力发展水平的提高表现出“先增、后降、再增”的三阶段特征，且最终表现为促进作用。(3)通过异质性分析发现，由于不同地理位置、经济发展水平和对外开放程度，新质生产力对林业经济增长的影响效果存在差异。(4)新质生产力对林业经济增长的影响存在城镇化、社会消费水平和劳动报酬门槛效应，且始终为正向非线性作用。(5)新质生产力对林业经济增长的影响存在正向空间溢出效应，本地林业经济增长会随邻近地区新质生产力发展阶段的变化而受到不同影响。为此，应加快新质生产力助推林业经济增长的机制创新，利用数据资源的整合与共享功能，解决林业经济增长中的体制机制问题，实现新质生产力赋能林业经济增长。
[Objective]The objective of this study is to study the impact of new quality productivity on the economic growth of forestry,which is helpful to provide new ideas for forestry production to achieve the goal of"double carbon".[Method]Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2012 to 2022,this paper calculated the development index of new quality productivity in each region,and used the two-way fixed effect model,threshold effect model and spatial Durbin model to study the impact of new quality productivity on forestry economic growth.[Conclusion]The results show that:(1)The new quality productivity and forestry economic development level of all provinces in China are steadily increasing.During the sample period,except for Beijing,Liaoning,Jilin and Shanghai,the forestry economy of the remaining 26 provinces showed an upward trend with the largest increase in Guizhou,and the development level of new quality productivity in all provinces showed an increasing trend with the largest increase in Shandong.(2)There is an N-shaped nonlinear relationship between the impact of new quality productivity on forestry economic growth,that is,forestry economic growth will show the three-stage characteristics of"first increase,then decrease,and then increase"with the improvement of the development level of new quality productivity,and finally show a promoting effect.(3)Through heterogeneity analysis,it is found that the impact of new quality productivity on forestry economic growth is different due to different geographical locations,economic development levels and openness to the outside world.(4)The impact of new quality productivity on forestry economic growth has the effect of urbanization,social consumption level and labor remuneration threshold,and it is always a positive nonlinear effect.(5)There is a positive spatial spillover effect on the growth of forestry economy,and the growth of local forestry economy will be affected differently with the change of the development stage of new quality productivity in neighboring areas.Therefore,it is necessary to accelerate the mechanism innovation of new quality productivity to promote forestry economic growth,use the integration and sharing function of data resources to solve the institutional problems in forestry economic growth,and realize the new quality productivity to empower forestry economic growth.
陈美玉;杨建州;
福建农林大学 经济与管理学院 福建 福州 350000;福建农林大学 经济与管理学院 福建 福州 350000;
F326.2;X196;F49
新质生产力 林业经济增长 “N”型关系 门槛效应 空间溢出效应
new quality productivity forestry economic growth "N"type relationship threshold effect spatial spillover effect
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