林业数智化对林业高质量发展的促进作用及其空间溢出效应
The role of forestry digital intelligence in promoting the high-quality evelopment of forestry
[目的]林业数智化是林业未来发展的必然趋势。本文通过构建林业数智化和林业高质量发展的评价指标体系，为丰富林业产业发展水平评价方案提供新的探索。同时，探讨了林业数智化促进林业高质量发展的促进效应及其空间溢出效应，推动了林业数智化赋能林业高质量发展的效应、地区差异的理解，以期为林业政策的制定和未来发展方向提供参考。[方法]通过构建评价指标体系，利用变异系数法及与层次分析法相结合的方式分别测度了 2010～2022 年我国 31 个省市的林业高质量和林业数智化发展综合水平，分析其时间和空间分布规律。并在此基础上，通过Hausman检验、门槛检验、LM检验、SDM检验等多项必要检验，选择双向固定效应模型、双重门槛模型和空间杜宾模型等实证模型对林业数智化促进林业高质量发展的作用进行了分析，分别论证其存在的促进作用、门槛效应和空间溢出效应。[结果]林业数智化显著促进了林业高质量发展水平的提升。同时，在数智化发展的不同阶段，该促进作用的边际效果呈现出先高后低又高的特点，但作用方向始终为正。最后，验证了林业数智对周边区域林业高质量产生的正向溢出效应，这一结论在利用滞后一期数据和 1%缩尾进行稳健性检验时仍然稳健，而在以沿海地区、内陆地区分类进行异质性分析时结果有所不同，但该结论仍然成立。
[Objective]Intelligent forestry is the inevitable trend of forestry development in the future.This paper provides a new exploration for enriching the evaluation scheme of forestry industry development level by constructing the evaluation index system of forestry digital intelligence and high-quality development.At the same time,the promotion effect and spatial spillover effect of forestry digital intelligence in promoting forestry high-quality development were discussed,which promoted the effect of forestry digital intelligence in empowering forestry high-quality development and the understanding of regional differences,with a view to providing reference for forestry policy formulation and future development direction.[Method]By constructing the evaluation index system,the comprehensive level of forestry high quality and forestry intellectualization development in 31 provinces and cities in China from 2010 to 2022 was measured by using the method of coefficient of variation and the method of combining with analytic hierarchy process,and its temporal and spatial distribution laws were analyzed.On this basis,through Hausman test,threshold test,LM test,SDM test and other necessary tests,empirical models such as two-way fixed effect model,double threshold model and spatial Dobbin model are selected to analyze the role of forestry digital intelligence in promoting the high-quality development of forestry,and demonstrate its promotion,threshold effect and spatial spillover effect respectively.[Result]The intellectualization of forestry has significantly promoted the high-quality development level of forestry.At the same time,in different stages of the development of digital intelligence,the marginal effect of this promotion shows the characteristics of high first,then low and high,but the direction of action is always positive.Finally,the positive spillover effect of forestry mathematical intelligence on the high quality of forestry in surrounding areas is verified.This conclusion is still robust when using the lagging first-period data and 1%tail reduction for robustness test,but the results are different when analyzing the heterogeneity by coastal areas and inland areas,but the conclusion is still valid.
评论